Long-Term Supply Coin Days Destroyed (LTS CDD) Indicator

TL;DR

• Long-Term Supply Coin Days Destroyed (LTS CDD) measures the coin days destroyed when long-term holders move their coins.
• High LTS CDD signals distribution, profit-taking, or strategic reallocation by conviction-driven holders.
• Low LTS CDD reflects strong holding behavior, accumulation, and long-term confidence.
• This metric is ideal for identifying macro market phases, distribution events, and structural shifts driven by experienced market participants.

Long-Term Supply Coin Days Destroyed Indicator (Chart Tutorial)

The Long-Term Supply Coin Days Destroyed (LTS CDD) indicator focuses on the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) — participants who have held coins for extended periods and typically exhibit higher conviction and strategic intent.

Unlike short-term metrics that capture speculation and emotional reactions, LTS CDD highlights deliberate supply movements that often align with macro trends, cycle tops, and major reallocations.

As a result, LTS CDD is widely used to assess long-term holder sentiment, distribution phases, and structural market transitions.

What Is Long-Term Supply (LTS) CDD? (Simple Definition)

Understanding LTS CDD starts with the core concept of coin age.

Coin Days

• Coin Days = number of coins × number of days unspent

Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)

• When coins move, their accumulated coin age is destroyed
• Older coins destroy significantly more coin days when spent

Long-Term Supply CDD

• LTS CDD measures the total coin days destroyed only by long-term holders
• Long-term holders are entities holding coins for extended periods, typically associated with strong conviction and strategic decision-making

Key Insight: Because long-term holders control older supply, movements reflected in LTS CDD carry far greater informational weight than short-term activity.

Why LTS CDD Matters for On-Chain Analysis

Long-term holders play a critical role in defining market structure.

Why Analysts Rely on LTS CDD

• Identifies distribution by conviction-driven holders
• Highlights strategic profit-taking
• Signals macro supply shifts
• Helps distinguish speculation from structural behavior
• Aligns closely with major cycle transitions

Insight: When long-term holders move coins at scale, it often reflects deep market conviction or changing macro expectations.

How to Read the LTS CDD Chart

Interpreting LTS CDD requires patience and context.

High LTS CDD Indicates

• Sustained movement of older coins
• Distribution during strong rallies
• Profit-taking near cycle peaks
• Strategic selling driven by macro conditions
• Structural increase in sell-side pressure

Low LTS CDD Indicates

• Long-term holders remain inactive
• High conviction and confidence
• Accumulation or holding behavior
• Reduced structural selling pressure
• Market stabilization or early recovery phases

Key Signals to Watch

• Multi-week or multi-month spikes
• Extended periods of suppression
• Inflection points
• Divergences between price and LTS CDD

What High LTS CDD Means

Elevated LTS CDD reflects intentional movement of old supply.

High LTS CDD Often Signals

• Distribution by experienced holders
• Strategic profit realization
• Repositioning during macro uncertainty
• Increased long-term sell pressure
• Late-stage bull market behavior

Why This Matters: Short-term volatility can be noise — sustained high LTS CDD is a structural signal that long-term holders are actively reducing exposure.

What Low LTS CDD Means

Low LTS CDD highlights conviction-driven restraint.

Low LTS CDD Typically Indicates

• Long-term holders unwilling to sell
• Strong belief in future price appreciation
• Accumulation or holding phases
• Reduced structural supply entering the market
• Conditions often associated with market bottoms

Insight: Extended periods of low LTS CDD frequently coincide with early accumulation zones and post-capitulation recovery phases.

Historical Patterns in LTS CDD

Across multiple cycles, LTS CDD has shown consistent behavior.

Bull Markets

• Spikes in LTS CDD during rallies
• Long-term holders distribute into strength
• Peaks often align with market tops

Bear Markets

• Suppressed LTS CDD
• Long-term holders remain inactive
• Supply remains dormant during prolonged downtrends

Neutral / Transition Phases

• Gradual increases during early recoveries
• Declines following major distribution events
• Trend changes often precede price trend shifts

How Traders & Analysts Use LTS CDD

Practical Applications

• Identify long-term distribution phases
• Confirm accumulation by conviction holders
• Assess macro-level holder sentiment
• Track structural supply changes
• Support long-horizon investment decisions
• Validate broader market narratives

LTS CDD is best used as a macro indicator, not a short-term trading signal.

Combining LTS CDD With Other Metrics

LTS CDD becomes more powerful when used in context.

Common Pairings

• Short-Term Supply (STS) CDD → speculation vs conviction
• 90D CDD → smoothed long-term behavior
• Dormancy Flow → valuation and cycle context
• Supply in Profit (LTH) → incentive to sell

Insight: High LTS CDD combined with declining price often signals structural distribution, while low LTS CDD during weakness suggests strong long-term confidence.

Limitations of the LTS CDD Metric

Important Considerations

• Less sensitive to short-term price action
• Can remain low for extended periods
• Does not identify individual wallets
• Large movements of very old coins can dominate readings
• Best interpreted alongside price and valuation metrics

LTS CDD is inherently slow-moving, by design.

Pro Tips for Using the LTS CDD Chart

• Focus on sustained trends, not isolated spikes
• Treat prolonged high levels as distribution warnings
• Watch for extended low periods after capitulation
• Compare LTS CDD slope with long-term price trends
• Use divergences to identify structural market shifts
• Combine with STS metrics for full holder context

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What does Long-Term Supply CDD measure?

It measures the coin days destroyed when long-term holders move their coins, reflecting conviction-driven behavior.

2. Who are long-term holders?

Entities holding coins for extended periods, typically associated with strategic decision-making and strong conviction.

3. What does high LTS CDD indicate?

Distribution, profit-taking, or strategic selling by long-term holders.

4. What does low LTS CDD indicate?

Strong holding behavior, accumulation, and confidence among long-term holders.

5. Is LTS CDD useful for short-term trading?

No — it is best suited for macro and long-horizon analysis.

6. Does LTS CDD help identify market tops?

Yes — sustained spikes often align with late-stage bull markets and cycle tops.

7. Should LTS CDD be used alone?

No — it is most effective when combined with price, valuation, and short-term holder metrics.

👉 View the Long-Term Supply Coin Days Destroyed chart on BlockHorizon